We might just survive this catastrophe
As Trump's first year comes to a close, it's looking like American democracy might survive his second term.
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A year or so ago, many of us were warning that Donald Trump would attempt to systematically dismantle American democracy once he took power. We've now seen this administration swiftly go about doing that. We watched as institutions fell apart, the rich and powerful bent the knee and the military invaded our cities.
It's been a bad year, but despite all that's happened, I think our democracy might end up surviving this thing.
As a political observer and commentator, I try to make sure to never be too hyperbolic or too optimistic. I don't want to be an alarmist, but I also don't want to be a Pollyanna. I think I've been able to walk that line this year, and I'm currently feeling pretty confident in our ability to fend off the relentless fascist forces we're dealing with.
While the elites have shown they'll happily appease a fascist, one reason I think we might survive this is that the people have shown they'll stand up for themselves when they need to. For instance, we've seen widespread organizing and resistance to ICE operations in my new home of Chicago. It's happening in other cities, too.
You need a movement to defeat fascism, and there's still room to grow on that front, but we've seen some of the largest single-day protests in American history happen recently. A few large protests won't save democracy by themselves, but they help organize the people, make them feel less alone and erode support for the authoritarian.
Speaking of eroding support, Trump is about as unpopular as he's ever been. That's great news if you care about winning this fight. A recent Gallup poll found Trump's approval rating is currently around 36 percent. Research by scholars of authoritarianism—such as Steve Levitsky, Daniel Ziblatt and Lucan Way—has found that a lower approval rating makes it harder to consolidate authoritarianism.
While Trump's approval rating has been falling, we've seen Democrats win important elections across the country, including in unexpected places. I suspect that trend will continue for a while, which will make life harder for Trump.
Thor Benson
Another reason for hope exists in one of our three branches of government—the judiciary. The Supreme Court has been a disaster over the last year, but lower courts have been quite impressive in their resistance to Trump's excesses. Even the Supreme Court occasionally gets it right, like in its recent decision to block him from deploying the National Guard in Illinois. Regardless, the Supreme Court only takes so many cases per year, so Trump's frequent losses in the lower courts matter.
Finally, I'm just not sure Trump has it in him to do the work that consolidating authoritarianism would seemingly require. He's obviously in decline. He's falling asleep all over the place. Of course, his henchmen can do a lot of the work of dismantling democracy, but I'm just not sure if they'll be able to finish the job while he's in charge.
All of that said, I do not think we are in the clear. This coming year could still be even worse than the first year. The two after that could also be quite bad, even if Democrats retake the House. We have big challenges ahead of us, but if the people keep fighting back, we might pull through.
I typically write about dark, depressing stuff when I'm writing, so this article is a bit of a departure for me, but I think we need to point out the reasons for hope when we see them. All is not lost, but there's still a lot of work to be done. That's essentially what I'm seeing here. We'll just have to take it one day at a time.
