A midterm prediction

As I've written before, there's a good chance Democrats are going to do very well in November. A recent Quinnipiac University poll found that Democrats have an 11-point advantage (D+11) over Republicans in November. That's the second poll to find that in recent months.

Overall, the national polls have been ranging from D+4 to D+11, depending on the pollster and their methodology. I think that an eleven-point advantage is slightly optimistic, but I definitely don't think it's out of bounds. I'm going to predict today that we're in a D+9 situation.

For context, D+7 is what garnered Democrats 41 seats in the House in 2018. According to my research, a D+9 situation this year would mean that Democrats would take the House and gain somewhere around 30 seats. The House races have been complicated by mid-decade redistricting—meaning gerrymandering—so they'd get fewer seats than they otherwise would have. There are other factors, but that's a significant one.

A D+9 scenario looks like it would give Democrats the Senate, too, but not by a lot. With these numbers, Democrats would retake the Senate and have a narrow majority. Unfortunately, that would mean certain less reliable senators, such as Pennsylvania Sen. John Fetterman, would have more power than I'd like.

Of course, Donald Trump is doing everything he can to disrupt the midterms. The Supreme Court will soon decide whether the Postal Service can enforce a Trump plan that would let it withhold mail-in ballots from voters not on a government eligibility list. That's just one of many ways he's been trying to interfere. That said, I think he'll ultimately fail.

I think it's almost a certainty that Democrats will take the House unless Trump is able to do something truly stunning to interfere with the elections, and I think they'll barely take the Senate.

It's important to remember that the next two years will be about disabling Trump and holding this administration accountable, not getting legislation passed, which will be the goal once Trump is no longer in office. Democrats just need a majority that wants to fight Trump right now.

The newsletter and videos

It's been a little over a year since the newsletter really got going and about 7 months since I started producing YouTube videos. Regardless of my schedule or where I was in the world — from Europe to other parts of the U.S. — I've made sure to keep the newsletters and videos coming.

I've interviewed big-name journalists and academics along the way, including Adam Serwer, Anne Applebaum, Kevin Kruse and Asawin Suebsaeng. None of that happens for free on my end, though. Each newsletter takes a full day out of my work schedule to research, report and write. Each video takes about the same. And video gear isn't cheap, either.

I need more paid subscribers to keep this pace up, so if you're a free subscriber and can upgrade, I'd really appreciate it. It's just over $3/month on the yearly plan. Here's a link to upgrade. Here's the general subscription link.

You can also support my work through tips or monthly contributions via my Ko-fi page. That's super easy, too.

I appreciate you all very much! Have a good week.